The three hilly states send a total number of 15 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
On the tenth edition of ‘RajNiti Elections 2019’ series, BTVI’s Executive Editor Siddharth Zarabi discusses the hill states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu & Kashmir.
The three states send a total number of 15 MPs to the Lok Sabha.
Who will Scale heights in Himachal Pradesh's political Mountainscape?
Gauging possible outcomes based on results from 2009, 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 2017 assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh. Which seats will be impacted by the airstrikes in Balakot?
Can BJP repeat five out of five in Uttarakhand?
Will the BJP win five out of five seats in Uttarakhand or will a decline in vote share affect its chances? HOw will Manish Khanduri joining the Congress change things for BJP in the state?
Which directions are the winds blowing in Jammu & Kashmir?
With the PDP falling back on Jamaat-e-Islami and a new friendship between Congress and NC, what will polls in the valley look like? Will Mehbooba Mufti be able to recover from the damage done to her credibility? Where will NC's support work in favour for Congress?
Here are the Big Questions BTVI asks:
1. What Has Been The Voting Pattern In 15 Lok Sabha Seats In The Himalayan Region?
2. Can The BJP Repeat Its 2014 Performance (12 out of 15)?
3. Will Balakot & Nationalism Resonate In The Region?
4. Who Are The Important Candidates In The Contest From These 15 Seats?
5. What Are The Current Projections For These 15 Seats?
Himachal Pradesh: Election results of 2009 & 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 Assembly:
Between 2009 to 2014, the BJP improved from 3 seats to winning all 4 and there was also a significant increase in the vote share, but the gains of 2014 diminshed to some extent in terms of vote share in 2017 Assembly elections.
In 2009, BJP won 3 seats with vote share of 49.6%, while Congress won 1 seat with vote share of 45.6%.
In 2014, BJP won all the 4 seats on account of the Modi wave and vote share was 53.4%. And, Congress didn’t win any seat but its vote share was 40.7%.
If 2017 Assembly election results are compared with Parliament seats, BJP won all 4 seats with vote share of 48.8%.
2017 vote swing compared to 2014 and 2009:
When vote swing of 2017 Assembly election results are compared with 2014 Lok Sabha results, there was a negative vote of 4.6% and between 2017 and 2009, there was negative swing of 0.8% for BJP. In comparison, Congress gained 1% and lost 3.9% respectively.
How were the results in the past in 4 Parliament Seats -- Hamirpur, Kangra, Mandi and Shimla (SC) -- in Himachal Pradesh?
Sukh Ram and have a hold in this region though Congress did not perform well in the 2017 Assembly elections.
Das says in Simla (SC), the vote share of Congress and BJP in 2017 Assembly elections is very narrow, less than 2% and it would be an interesting seat to watch out for in 2019.
Chetan Chauhan, Editor, Hindustan Times, on BJP sweeping the state of Himachal in 2014, says in 2014 Veerbhadra Singh was fighting anti-incumbency and corruption charges, and there was also a pro-Modi wave.
On the voting pattern witnessed in Himachal and Uttarakhand, Chauhan says people vote differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections and had chosen different governments.
Chauhan also says if Congress fields a Rajput candidate from Kangra, they have a fair chance of winning the seat.
Bhawesh Jha, Director – CNX, says Himachal can be mostly associated with BJP and the recent Balakot airstrike will have a positive impact in Himachal and Uttarakhand as these regions have sent many of their citizens to the defence forces, expects BJP to win all 4 seats in Himachal.
Uttarakhand: Results of 2009, 2014 LS elections & 2017 Assembly election:
Partha Das says in 2009, Congress won all the 5 seats with 43.3% vote share and BJP was not able to win any seat though polled 33.6% vote share. But, fortunes of BJP and Congress reversed in 2014. And in 2017, Congress could not improve its vote share much and so BJP.
How was the Past Election Results of 5 Parliament Seats -- Almora (SC), Hardiwar, Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar, Garhwal and TehriGarhwal -- of Uttarakhand?
Senior Journalist Renu Mittal says Uttarkhand is becoming difficult for the BJP and the present situation cannot be compared with 2014, because there was Modi wave in the previous election. She further says BJP has sidelined some of its honest leaders like Khanduri and Pokhriyal and this may be its disadvantage. She also points out that lack of experience of the present CM.
Senior Journalist Rahul Jalali says BC Khanduri’s son contesting on Congress ticket is a big thing and BJP has lost it here after losing its popular leader BC Khanduri to the Congress. He also says though BJP is far more organized on the ground, Congress is doing well in Himachal, adds he does not see footprint of Balakot.
Senior Journalist Renu Mittal says Harish Rawat has a high chance of winning from the Nainital seat and Congress is looking for suitable candidates to field from other seats in the state.
Details of region wise Lok Sabha seats in Jammu & Kashmir:
What are the different regions of J&K and how did it vote in the past?
Ex-Servicemen Population in the 3 hill states:
Satisfaction level with sitting MPs:
Senior Journalist Rahul Jalali expects Farooq Abdullah to win Srinagar seat, says Congress candidate in Poonch has a chance of winning if he get support from the National Conference.
He expects voter turnout to be high in Baramulla, says BJP may suffer in the state and PDP will be wiped out, also says PDP may not win even one seat.
Meetu Jain, Senior Journalist, says BJP won the Ladakh seat in 2014 with a very slim margin, also says Mehbooba Mufti has lost her credibility and needs to regain her seat.
What will be the final numbers?