How significant are the rebel AAP leaders? How significant are the rebel SAD leaders? What outcome is likely?
Mumbai: On the fourth edition of the series on ‘RajNiti Elections 2019’ debate, the focus is on the state of Punjab.
Factors like -- strong leadership of Amarinder Singh emerging as a big positive for Congress, the role rebel leaders of Shiromani Akali Dal and AAP may play, whether AAP can repeat its spectacular performance of 2014, and the impact of caste on the polls – were discussed with panellists by BTVI’s Executive Editor Siddharth Zarabi.
The Big Questions BTVI asks:
1. Can Captain Amarinder Singh deliver 13/13? Or, will SAD-BJP Alliance trounce Congress?
2. What are the caste equations in Punjab and how will they impact the outcome?
3. How significant are the rebel AAP leaders? How significant are the rebel SAD leaders?
4. What outcome is likely?
What was the situation in Punjab in 2014 Lok Sabha, 2017 Assembly and 2017 by-elections? What do the numbers indicate?
Partha Das, psephologist, speaking on results of 2014 Lok Sabha says the SAD-BJP won 6 seats and got 35% vote share, the Congress 3 seats with 33.1% vote share, and AAP 4 seats with 24% vote share.
Das analyzing 2017 Assembly election results and the 2018 by-election result, Das says SAD-BJP did not win even one seat though they got vote share of 33%.
He further says Congress led in 10 seats even though it got 38 per cent vote share. AAP and Lok Insaf Party together got 24.7% vote share and won 3 seats.
It should also benoted that in both the elections, AAP got 24 per cent vote share.
In the Gurdaspur by-election, Congress won by the seat though BJP got 35% vote share.
Here is how the 2014 Lok Sabha election results look like:
Here is parties' performance (vote share) in Gurdaspur in 2017 Assembly election, 2017 Assembly by-election and 2014 Lok Sabha election:
Compared to 2014 Lok Sabha election, Congress gained a lot of vote share in 2017.
And, if 2017 Assembly election results are compared with 2017 by-election result in Gurdaspur, Congress further gained 12.9%.
This was the how the vote share picture of parties looks like if Gurdaspur by-election result is compared with 2014 Lok Sabha result:
AAP vote share crashed when 2014 LS result is compared with 2017 Assembly and 2017 by-election result.
2014 Lok Sabha Election Results: Seats won by parties and vote share %:
2017 Assembly Election Results:
Seats won by parties and with vote share percentage:
Here is the data showing castes and their respective per centage:
What are caste equations in Punjab and how will it impact the final outcome?
What was the result in the local rural body election in Punjab?
Here is the data showing seats won by different parties in local rural body election in 2018:
Here is the data showing seats won by different parties in Block Samiti Election in 2018:
List of rebel AAP leaders:
Who are the rebel SAD leaders? Here is the list:
What could be the final outcome in 2019?
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