With 28 data sets, this show presents to you, the most neutral and unbiased picture of Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh has given nine out of 15 Prime Ministers of India. It sends 80 lawmakers to the lower house of the Parliament- the largest out of 29 Indian states- and for this reason it’s the most difficult state to crack for journalists as well as psephologists. In the first of the 20-part series of discussions on ‘RajNiti Elections 2019’, Siddharth Zarabi, Executive Editor BTVI along with India's top political minds, dissects complex electoral data comprising caste, religion and region-wise factors that will affect the fortunes of political parties.
With 28 data sets, this show presents to you, the most neutral and unbiased picture of Uttar Pradesh.
Here is vote share and seats won by parties in 2014 Lok Sabha elections:
According to Partha Das, psephologist, Chanakya, the coming together of Samajwadi Party (SP) , Bahujan Samaj Party( BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) , in the by-elections of Phulpur, Gorakhpur and Kairana- held in 2018- has increased their vote share to 49% from 41% compared with the result of 2014 general elections. He further says that in this election, BJP witnessed a drop in the vote share, and that from 51.6% in 2014, it came down to 44%.
Here is the vote share of parties and number of seats won by them in 2017 Assembly elections:
BJP’s vote share in 2018 by-elections slumps. The party’s vote share in 2018 by-elections when compared with its 2014 LS elections vote share looks like the following:
Political analyst, Yatish Rajawat says the maths of 2014, 2017 and 2018 election results does not mean that the parties would gain the same amount of vote share in the upcoming elections.
To justify his remark, Rajawat says,”31% was the vote share of the BJP but it resulted in disproportionate share of seats. It got 52% of seats. Their alliance got even less share but won 62% seats.”
According to Bhawesh Jha, Psephologist and Co-Founder CNX Media, BJP has taken populist measures to fight triple aniti-incumbency over the last three months to regain the confidence of grassroots workers.
He says, “Grassroots workers of BJP were reluctant to help the party win. And, it resulted in close contest fights in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.”
On the Mahagathbandhan, Jha says that worked only in Bihar and that too due to the Nitish Kumar factor.
Vivek Avasthi, Senior Editor, BTVI, the Congress is not fielding candidates from Mainpuri, Firozabad, Kannauj, and the seats from where Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati will contest. This indicates that idea of Mahagathbandan is very much existing though it has not taken a proper shape, according to Avasthi.
Senior journalist, Vinod Agnihotri, while commenting on the personality factor in the upcoming elections, says, Akhilesh and Mayawati are the definitely the faces of their respective parties and both have the potential to attract their vote base. But at the same time, Agnihotri warns that the Congress had won in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh without presenting Chief Ministerial candidates.
“Raman Singh had 65% of popularity when the state went to elections but the BJP lost. Shivraj Singh was the face of the party in Rajsthan. There the party lost.” Asserts Agnihotri.
Sunita Aron, senior resident editor, Hindustan Times, commenting on the caste equation and its role in the outcome of the election results, says, “At the end of the day, it is about caste. Even BJP is realizing that it cannot ignore caste identity politics. Yadavs and Jatavs are feeling ignored. It is a matter of survival for Akhilesh and Mayawati.”
How will caste factor play out? Take a look at the social equation in the state.
Aron further adds that the voting behavior of Muslims has changed post Babri demolition, and they no more look upon Congress.
Here is the voting pattern of different castes.
Will Priyanka Gandhi improve the fortunes of the Congress in Eastern UP?
Here is the vote share of different parties in Eastern Uttar Pradesh in 2009 Lok Sabha and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Here is the list of seats won by different parties in Eastern UP in 2009 Lok Sabha and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
On the Priyanka Gandhi factor, Sunita Aron says, “I don’t expect Priyanka to do a miracle. But she will definitely improve the voting percentage and number of seats. She can lay foundation for Congress’ future.”
Here is a comparison of vote share of parties in 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Also, take a look at the strong seats of the Congress party.
What could be the results in the state? Here are the three scenarios.
Scenario 1: SP, BSP and RLD votes transferable (basis 2014 LS elections)
Scenario 2: SP, BSP and RLD votes transferable seamlessly but 4% vote swing against the BJP, and 2% vote share transferred to Congress. (basis 2014 LS elections)
Scenario 3: SP, BSP and RLD votes transferable seamlessly but 6% vote swing against the BJP. (basis 2014 LS elections)
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